Sudip Bandyopadhyay’s Blog

With the recent sharp decline in Chinese manufacturing output, the global decoupling theory seems to have died a well-deserved death.  The idea that developing countries had become less dependent on US economic conditions, and so were insulated from the US crisis, was based on a potent combination of bad analysis and wishful thinking.  In fact [...]

It seems only yesterday that scarcity was the story. Energy and commodity prices were heading into the stratosphere. The oil was running out, food shortages loomed, Russia was resurgent and China was marching into Africa amid a scramble for dwindling resources.
Now? Prices everywhere are falling as recession bites. Investment banks have disappeared; and the global [...]

Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, confessed that he had failed to anticipate the financial crisis and said “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief.” Mr.Greenspan had faith that banks were prudent enough to make [...]

After the co-ordinated rate cuts by the major economies, in October, the Chinese cut interest rates in a show of solidarity. Now the rest of the world is talking about fiscal stimulus, and China is charging ahead. The State Council has announced a vast fiscal stimulus programme to pull China through the coming grim years. [...]

The economic reforms launched in China by Deng Xiaoping celebrate their 30th anniversary this year and there are plenty of reasons to think the country could enjoy  another 30 years of high growth.  Urbanisation has been one of the main driving forces and by some calculations the process is only half-complete.  Despite all the progress [...]